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26/07/2021

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An underrated rule of technology is Amara’s Law. Named after Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future, it states: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” 


The quote is often attributed to Bill Gates, but in reality, Gates merely stood on the shoulder of giants.

When you think about Amara’s Law, it explains a lot; it explains, for example, why the dotcom boom turned to ashes and then turned again such that today the global economy is underpinned by digital technologies.

It also explains the Gartner Hype Cycle, which describes the phases of new products, from hype…

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