Strap yourself in for 2022
Strap yourself in for 2022; it could be a difficult year…..although there is always something to worry about with stock markets – if anything, it’s best to really start worrying when there is nothing evident to worry about!
Consider the outlook. The Case Shiller P/E ratio also called the CAPE, compares the valuation of S&P 500 companies with their average earnings over the previous ten years. The index stands at 40.24x, the highest level since the beginning of the century. The historical mean for this index is 16.90x, and the all-time high set at the peak of the dotcom boom is 44.19x In other words, current valuations are extremely high. Of course, the elevated level of the CAPE can be partially justified because Covid negatively distorted the total level of earnings over the previous ten years. But then,…